Could more accurate BGL readings be on the way?

A mathematical model, created by Penn State researchers, can predict with more than 90 per cent accuracy the blood glucose levels of individuals with type 1 diabetes up to 30 minutes in advance.

Many people with type 1 diabetes use continuous glucose monitors, which examine the fluid underneath the skin.

Distinguished Professor of Human Development and Family Studies and of Psychology Peter Molenaar said glucose levels under the skin trail blood glucose levels from anywhere between 8 and 15 minutes.

“This is especially problematic during sleep,” he said. “Patients may become hypoglycemic well before the glucose monitor alarm tells them they are hypoglycemic.”

According Professor Molenaar a person’s blood glucose levels fluctuate in response to his or her insulin dose, meal intake, physical activity and emotional state. How great these fluctuations are depends on the individual.

“In the past decade, much progress has been made in the development of a mechanical ‘artificial pancreas,’ which would be a wearable or implantable automated insulin-delivery system consisting of a continuous glucose monitor, an insulin pump and a control algorithm closing the loop between glucose sensing and insulin delivery,” he said.

“But creating an artificial pancreas that delivers the right amount of insulin at the right times has been a challenge because it is difficult to create a control algorithm that can handle the variability among individuals. Our new model is able to capture this variability. It predicts the blood glucose levels of individuals based on insulin dose and meal intake.”

The researchers created a time-varying model. The team tested the accuracy of its model using an FDA-approved UVa/Padova simulator with 30 virtual patients and five living patients with type 1 diabetes.

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