New research from the University of Sydney reveals that the number of Australians living with diabetes may be up to 35 per cent higher than previously estimated.

The findings raise critical questions about the size of one of Australia’s most serious chronic health conditions.

The study, published in Diabetes Research and Clinical Practice, applied a sophisticated algorithm to integrated health data from Medicare, hospital records, and pharmaceutical claims. The results suggest there could be more than two million Australians living with diabetes, many of whom are currently missing from the official diabetes register.

Lead author Emma Cox, PhD Candidate from the Leeder Centre for Health Policy, Economics and Data, said the research highlights a much larger and more diverse population living with diabetes, particularly older Australians, people in remote areas, and culturally and linguistically diverse communities.

“This isn’t just a data issue, it’s a public health issue,” Ms Cox said. “A significant number of Australians are missing from national statistics. That makes it harder to plan services, allocate funding, and deliver prevention strategies where they’re most needed.”

The research was partially funded in 2017 by a Diabetes Australia Research Trust grant and builds on longstanding calls for better integration of medical data to understand the true burden of chronic disease.

Professor Grant Brinkworth, Director of Research at Diabetes Australia, said the findings offer a compelling call to action.

“This study tells us what many of us in the sector have said for years: we’re not seeing the full picture of diabetes in Australia,” Professor Brinkworth said. “Understanding the true scale is essential if we want to improve outcomes for individuals and manage the national impact of this condition.”

The study also found that many people who are living with diabetes are managing the condition through lifestyle changes or medications like metformin, groups who may be less likely to register with the National Diabetes Services Scheme (NDSS).

“If people aren’t visible in the data, they’re also invisible to policy and funding decisions,” Professor Brinkworth added.

The research reinforces the importance of improved screening, earlier diagnosis, and greater health system integration to ensure every person affected by diabetes is counted, supported, and resourced.

Diabetes Australia is committed to working with the Australian Government and health sector to ensure barriers to registration are removed with appropriate investment in the NDSS to enable timely registration and accurate reporting.

Read the full study: Is the burden of diabetes in Australia underestimated? – Diabetes Research and Clinical Practice